Shortcut reaches beyond basic blackjack strategy
November 14, 2005
There's a dimension of skilled blackjack play that exists
beyond basic strategy. It is the realm of card counting
-- keeping track of the cards that have been dealt in order
to assess the collective value of the cards remaining in
an effort to determine statistically whether the game's
house edge has increased or if it has tilted toward the
players' advantage.
The most accurate means by which to do this involves observing
every single card that is dealt and keeping a running total
of plus (player advantage) or minus (house advantage) in
your head. It requires intense concentration, a mathematical
mind and countless hours of practice to master.
For blackjack players unwilling to make that kind of commitment,
allow me to present a very elementary method of counting.
It is nowhere near as accurate as a running count, but any
means by which you take basic strategy to the next level
is better than none. Besides, it's easy to learn and requires
minimum effort to master.
Here's how it works, remembering to keep in mind that you
must learn to stop being a passive player paying attention
only to your own hand and become a pro-active player who
watches the hands of everyone at the table:
The model is a six-deck shoe, popular at all casino destinations
in the Chicago area. There are 312 cards in six decks, 96
of which carry a value of 10 (kings, queens, jacks and 10s).
Assuming the dealer will cut 1-1/2 decks (78 cards) out
of play after the shuffle, 24 of them theoretically will
be 10-value cards, leaving 72 of them in play among the
234 cards to be dealt.
If we are to establish that there are six players plus
the dealer at the table and approximately 23 cards will
be dealt on every hand, there will be 10 deals from the
shoe before it's time to shuffle up. If the 10-value cards
come out proportionately, there should be seven of them
on the table for each round.
Let's put this model into practice with a mock game: On
the first round, you observe that seven 10-value cards have
been dealt, which keeps the count neutral. On the second
round, only five come out, which now gives you a count of
plus-2. On the third round, nine 10s are on the table, which
brings your count back to neutral.
Once you enter the second half of the shoe and the remaining
deals are in "plus" territory, this is an indication
the shoe may be rich in 10-value cards and present favorable
wagering opportunities. On the other hand, if your count
reveals the remaining deals potentially weak in 10s, it
may be time to decrease your bets or back off a little.
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